Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
